How an agreement breaks down
- Accidental shot
- Precautionary response
- Blame for breach
- Return to fighting
Pay attention to the second step. The response is not driven by ill intent but by caution: if the other side has started, you cannot wait. Each side reasons the same way, so one accident turns into a violation by both sides.
The third step cements the breakdown. Both sides sincerely believe the other is to blame, and there is no one to check. Without an independent observer, the question of "who went first" becomes a matter of faith, and reaching a new agreement becomes harder.
Who has something to lose from peace
The second common cause is people who lose out from peace. Within almost any side, there are groups whose position depends on the fighting continuing, and they need only one incident to undo everything.
Such incidents do not require the commander's approval. A small group can wreck an agreement for which entirely different people are responsible, which is why negotiators try to include everyone in the agreement, not just the leaders.
The third cause is the fear that the other side will use the pause to regroup. As long as both sides think this way, each tries not to let its guard down, and the ceasefire lasts only until the first suspicious movement.
What sets lasting ceasefires apart
- What exactly counts as a violation, and what does not, is written down.
- A third party records what happens.
- The sides have a channel for quickly sorting out accidents.
- The response to a violation, other than returning to combat, is agreed in advance.
- The agreement includes all armed groups, not just the main ones.
The third point may seem minor, but it saves more ceasefires than anything else. If the sides can find out within an hour what happened, an accident remains an accident. Without communication, it automatically becomes a violation.
The famous Christmas Truce of World War I held because of direct contact: soldiers made arrangements face to face. It ended not from within, but through orders from above, and it was not allowed to happen again in the following years.
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Sources
- Studies of ceasefires note that an agreement's durability depends on verification mechanisms, communication channels between the sides, and the inclusion of all armed groups, not just on the parties' intentions